One thing is clear. Suella Braverman is not going away, says Stephen Pollard

In that context, as one of the few politicians of whom the public had even heard – and it’s easy to forget how little interest most people have in day-to-day politics – one might have expected her to have been unsackable.

But sacked she was – and her sacking was almost universally expected. So far at least, it has not even led to serious blowback from the right wing of the Conservative Party. We will find out over the next few months whether that actually lasts.

One thing, though, is clear. Suella Braverman is not going away, and if the Tories lose the next election she will be a leadership contender.

Her problem in that contest will not be that her views make her unpopular with the public or with the party members ­
who will choose the next Conservative leader.

It’s that she does not yet seem to have enough support from MPs to get to the final round. It’s the same problem that has allowed Rishi Sunak to sack her without the risk of real unrest.

But she is now free to spend the next year building support – assuming the general election takes place next autumn or thereabouts. So by sacking her, Rishi Sunak might just have done her a huge favour.

If her successor, James Cleverly, is to be a successful Home Secretary – and there are a tiny number of holders of that office who leave it with their reputation enhanced – there will be very little difference in policy between him and Braverman.

He may be more emollient, but on issues such as stemming the flow of immigration, Rwanda, tackling radical Islamism, getting the police to deal properly with so-called low-level crime, enforcing our borders, deporting foreign ­criminals and – most recently – stopping the weekly carnival ­ of hate that has taken over ­central London these past five weeks, Cleverly will surely ­pursue more or less the same polices, because these are all Sunak’s policies.

Suella Braverman wasn’t sacked because she was out of kilter on policy but over her tone, and some of her language.

In advance of yesterday’s reshuffle everyone assumed the big story would be the sacking of the Home Secretary. But it turned out to be the shock return of David Cameron. And for all the sniping from some quarters, it’s a sensible and serious appointment. The world is in flux.

The conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are pivotal events which will shape the course of the 21st century. Every day matters – and the last thing we need is a novice Foreign Secretary spending months learning on the job. Cameron is a heavyweight who can do the job from day one.

But his appointment also has domestic relevance. As recent by-elections have shown, the Tories are in free fall in southern strongholds.

Seats with ­­supposedly unassailable Conservative majorities such as Chesham, Mid Bedfordshire and Somerton and Frome have all seen votes ­crumble away. The return of Cameron just might – true, it’s a big “might” – help shore up southern support. It is also part of the same ­pattern we can see in other appointments, with what might best be termed centrist ministers leading the way. Victoria Atkins has won plaudits in her previous jobs.

Given the central importance of the NHS over the next year and in the election, it’s significant that she is one of the party’s best media performers. And with the BMA appearing to be looking for a way to end its damaging strike, having her as new health minister should help.

But one of the least-known new faces, the new Tory chairman, Richard Holden, could be one of the most significant. The job is vital in the run up to an election. The media side is important, but even more so is making sure that the party machinery is purring. Without that, any campaign is doomed.

Holden knows the machinery inside out, having worked in opposition under Cameron and then in the press office after the 2010 election. He also worked on both Theresa May and Boris Johnson’s leadership campaigns, so he has deep experience of the party itself.

But the basic truth of ­any reshuffle is that while Westminster gets very excited, most people won’t know or care if Mr X has been made the new Secretary of State for Paper Clips. All that matters is whether they think their lives are improving. And that’s a whole different ball game.