Suella Braverman can oust Rishi Sunak – but won’t take his crown for two major reasons

It may take time but discussions are well underway within and between the different factions on the right of the Conservative Party on how to depose Rishi Sunak.

While some understandably are nervous about another leader vote, the prevailing view is that last Monday’s reshuffle and the sacking of Suella Braverman was “a declaration of war”.

As one senior MP told Express.co.uk: “The one fact that colleagues need to grasp is that the message of Monday is that Sunak wants to destroy the right of the party.”

Into this mixture of rage and despondency has stepped the now sacked former Home Secretary Suella Braverman.

She has become a martyr figure for the right and is generating huge amounts of support among the public as well as her colleagues.

It is clear that her letter this week was devastating to the Prime Minister’s reputation.

As one MP said: “He [Sunak] has come over as a liar. Duplicitous.

“Colleagues were going through that letter line by line thinking ‘yes, he said that to me too!’

“Now nobody trusts a word he says.”

Even a critic of Ms Braverman on the right conceded: “It was a perfectly pitched letter.”

So, it is clear that Ms Braverman can be the Brutus figure of her day – the one who plunges in the knife to kill Ceasar.

But with her supporters currently number-crunching on whether they can get Sunak out and Braverman in as leader, there is warning from history she needs to beware of.

In 1990, it was Michael Heseltine who wielded the knife which finished Margaret Thatcher but he then lost to John Major in the leadership election.

It was said of him: “He who wields the knife never inherits the crown.”

While he was a Tory wet on the left and Ms Braverman is firmly on the right, she is facing serious problems in realising her dream of becoming party leader and Prime Minister.

This boils down to the factionalism on the right of the Conservative Party and the equation needed for someone from that side of the party to win.

There are four main overlapping groups to consider.

The Braverman supporting New Conservatives and Common Sense Group who want migration control, the Brexiteer European Research Group, the allies of Boris Johnson and the Liz Truss pro-growth, low tax group.

As one MP noted: “If we all come together, we can remove Sunak.”

Ms Braverman, as a former Brexit spartan who refused to compromise with Theresa May’s deals, can rely largely on the ERG and Common Sense/New Conservative groups.

But she has a serious problem with the other two groups because she was seen to have betrayed both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

In Johnson’s case, she announced her leadership almost as soon as he resigned, showing she was ready last year.

But more damagingly, as Nadine Dorries has been tweeting and Express.co.uk revealed, her decision to back Rishi Sunak after Truss’s government fell was the final straw which ended Boris Johnson’s comeback attempt.

As one Boris Johnson ally said: “It is hard to forgive that.”

But there is an even bigger problem with the Liz Truss camp.

One former Downing Street insider described how Ms Truss on several occasions thought Braverman was about to resign as Home Secretary because the two disagreed over legal immigration control.

Shouting matches in the Cabinet room between the two women have been described with Braverman insisting that she should be left to control migration policy.

At one point, it has been claimed Truss’s Deputy Prime Minister Therese Coffey had to sit with her the night before her conference speech to demand she took policy announcements out which had not been cleared by Truss.

A source said: “She [Braverman] insisted it was in the 2019 manifesto and should stay, she would not accept it was a new government.”

The source added: “She was a loose cannon, following her own political agenda and leadership ambitions. She would not accept collective responsibility.”

However, there is a definite willingness for the factions to work together to remove a common enemy – the Prime Minister.

One of Truss’s faction said of Braverman: “My enemy’s enemy is my friend.”

The issue is that for many MPs there needs to be a viable leadership candidate on the right ready before they will send in letters to trigger a vote of no confidence in Sunak.

“Colleagues won’t move unless we have someone ready to go,” said one MP.

Another added: “We have to come to a collective decision over who it will be and who we [factions] can all support.”

But one ally of Truss’s said: “Liz won’t support Braverman after how she treated her.”

There is no doubt though that Ms Braverman and her mentor Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group, and New Conservative co-founders Miriam Cates and Danny Kruger are very much aiming to install her sooner rather than later - in other words before an election.

But if not Braverman, then who?

The question is looking at who is in the overlapping points of the concentric circles of immigration control, Boris Johnson support and low tax, pro-growth.

That does not leave many viable options.

Some like Ranil Jayawardena are seen as a new generation candidate but he does not have the profile or experience many believe is needed before an election.

If Braverman is clever, she would team up with Jayawardena offering to make him Chancellor to create the ticket she needs.

Former chairman and cabinet stalwart Brandon Lewis has been mentioned as a safe pair of hands candidate, but he was a May loyalist and Remainer in 2016.

For many the most obvious candidate is Priti Patel, another former Home Secretary who was also a Brexit spartan. She clearly falls into all those camps more than anyone else and has huge support in the Conservative Democratic Organisation grassroots movement.

Jacob Rees-Mogg could appeal to the different groups but his “star has waned”, according to some.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch still has her supporters but has strongly annoyed the Brexiteers and is seen as too close to Michael Gove.

Asked if she should be a candidate of the right, one ex-minister laughed out loud: “She’s not on the right. We are not giving Gove the keys to Downing Street.”

An ally of Liz Truss said: “It will be a matter of ensuring Kemi is not the pretend candidate of the right.”

But the biggest problem is that there are a number who believe they can and should be leader.

As one MP said: “There are too many egos and personalities. People need to put their egos aside.”

Another said: “Any leader will have to get people [from the different factions] in their team.”

The prevailing wisdom is that if there is a vote on Sunak’s leadership, it will be in January.

As one Truss ally said: “It will take time for things to sink in with colleagues and after a hard winter and continued bad polls, they will probably be ready to pull the trigger in January.”

However, between now and then they will need to have to find a consensus leadership candidate or face another leader from the left.

Penny Mordaunt and Education Secretary Gillian Keegan are favourites for that role, although new Home Secretary James Cleverly is a possible compromise.

It all means that is going to be a fraught Christmas for the Prime Minister, and one filled with plotting and intrigue.